Policy and National Security Research

Burak Oktenli is an independent researcher and analyst working at the intersection of artificial intelligence governance, national security, and critical infrastructure resilience. His public-source research examines how authority, accountability, and human oversight should be structured for autonomous and AI-enabled systems in safety-critical settings. This page collects his published commentary, externally cited work, and governance research relevant to policymakers, researchers, and public-sector institutions.

Burak Oktenli presenting on multi-domain missile defense

Researcher Profile

Burak Oktenli is a policy-oriented researcher focused on the governance of autonomous and AI-enabled systems in defense, critical infrastructure, and other safety-critical domains. His work examines a recurring question across these settings: when an automated system acts faster than a person can intervene, under whose authority did it act, and who is accountable for the result. He develops public-source analysis and technical governance frameworks that treat authority, accountability, and auditability as design requirements rather than afterthoughts. His research includes seven governance architectures addressing sensor trust, human-machine authority, escalation risk, and recovery, several of which are formally specified and machine-verified. He has published commentary with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and other defense outlets, and his work has been cited in the United States Federal Register and in academic research. He contributes to standards discussion as a stakeholder participant in a NIST AI Risk Management Framework community of interest. He holds an MBA and is completing a Master of Professional Studies in Applied Intelligence at Georgetown University. He works independently and is not affiliated with, nor does he represent, any government agency or intergovernmental body.

Policy Focus Areas

AI governance and accountability

Examines how decision authority for AI systems should be bounded, assigned, and made reviewable, so responsibility stays clear as autonomy increases.

Critical infrastructure resilience

Studies how safety-critical and operational-technology environments maintain control and continuity under cyber-physical stress and automated failure.

Autonomous systems oversight

Analyzes the human-oversight requirements for systems that can act below human reaction time, including how and when control passes between human and machine.

Operational technology and cyber-physical risk

Focuses on the security and governance of industrial control and OT environments where digital decisions carry physical consequences.

Strategic stability and escalation risk

Considers how machine-speed decision support and autonomy affect crisis stability, escalation dynamics, and the timing of human deliberation.

Public-source national security analysis

Produces analysis built entirely from open and credible sources, with stated assumptions and confidence levels, intended to inform rather than advocate.

Selected Publications and Policy-Relevant Work

Op-EdJuly 2, 2026

The One Clause in Trump's AI Memo That Could Encumber the Off-Switch

RealClearDefense
Op-EdJune 30, 2026

When the Machine Decides and the Human Signs

The Defense Post
Op-EdJune 26, 2026

When the Machine Acts First: Closing the Authority Gap on the Autonomous Battlefield

Modern War Institute at West Point
Editorial RecognitionJune 26, 2026

Featured in UPI's Korea Regional Review Director's Corner

United Press International (UPI), Korea Regional Review · Director's Corner, June 26, 2026 · Editorially curated national-security review; the author's Modern War Institute op-ed was selected alongside analyses from Foreign Affairs, The Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, War on the Rocks, and Small Wars Journal, with editorial commentary engaging the argument directly.
Editorial RecognitionJune 23, 2026

Featured in the Parliamentary Observatory on AI of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Mediterranean

Centre for Global Studies, Parliamentary Assembly of the Mediterranean · Weekly Digest on AI and Emerging Technologies, June 23, 2026 · The author's RUSI commentary on Operation Midnight Hammer and AI-era command was selected for the observatory's curated digest, summarized alongside analyses from Defense One, Defense News, and Breaking Defense.
Op-EdJune 22, 2026

Space Autonomy Needs an Authority Architecture Before 2027

The Space Review (in association with SpaceNews)
Policy CommentaryJune 16, 2026

The Hour That Worked: What Midnight Hammer Teaches About AI-Era Command

Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Guest Commentary
Op-EdJune 4, 2026

The Quantum Clock Is Already Ticking on America's Autonomous Arsenal

RealClearDefense
Policy CommentaryJune 12, 2026

When an AI Agent Fires First, Who Answers for It?

Military AI

These commentaries draw on a broader body of governance research, including seven governance architectures and 36 open-access works (20 Zenodo DOIs and 16 SSRN working papers). The complete catalogue is on the Publications page.

Third-Party Citations and External References

Government RecordMay 26, 2026

United States Federal Register (NHTSA)

Incident Reporting for Automated Driving Systems and Level 2 ADAS

A public comment by Burak Oktenli (NHTSA-2026-0529-0007) is cited by name in footnote 10 of the notice at 91 FR 30789, Docket NHTSA-2026-0529.

Academic Citation2026

University of Toronto, LexAI Journal

University of Toronto Law and Ethics of AI Students' Association

The Escalation Risk Assessment Model (ERAM) is cited as Reference #4 in “The Ethics of AI in U.S. Warfare.”

Academic CitationJune 2026

Cited in a Taxonomy of Advanced AI Systems (Lt Gen (Dr) R S Panwar)

Lt Gen (Dr) R S Panwar (Indian Army, Retired), Doctorate in Computer Science, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay · Academia.edu preprint, June 2026

"Cognition, Agency, and Authority: A Taxonomy of Advanced AI Systems with Military Implications" cites the author's working paper on AI-enabled military decision-making and escalation risk (endnote 39) in support of its analysis of strategic risk in cognitively sophisticated AI systems.

arXiv PreprintMay 2026

Cited in an arXiv preprint on shadow AI in critical infrastructure

Baruwal Chhetri, Tariq, Aamir, Grobler, Thapa & Singh (CSIRO Data61), arXiv:2606.00088

“From Frontier to Shadow AI: A Simmering Threat to Assurance and Security in Critical Infrastructure” cites the applicant's SSRN analysis of AI outpacing human clearance models (reference 41), in a study of 27 Australian critical-infrastructure organizations.

Source links and the full record are on the Citations and Recognition page.

The Governance Gap

As autonomous and AI-enabled systems take on time-critical decisions in defense and critical infrastructure, a gap is opening between what these systems can do and the frameworks meant to hold them accountable. When a system acts faster than a person can intervene, existing oversight models struggle with a basic question: under whose authority did it act, and who is responsible for the outcome? Closing that gap means separating evidence-based risks from speculation and defining clear criteria for bounded authority, accountability, and auditable control. These are the questions this research examines.

Credibility and Evidence

This research is built on public and openly available sources, credible institutional and government reports, and peer-reviewed literature where available. Assumptions are stated, confidence levels are noted, and claims are verifiable through the cited sources. The work does not rely on, claim, or imply access to classified information, and it has not been reviewed or endorsed by any government agency.

Contact

Inquiries: info@burakoktenli.com

This page presents independent research and analysis. Burak Oktenli is not an elected official, government official, or agency representative, and is not affiliated with any government agency or intergovernmental body. References to institutions are analytical and do not imply affiliation or endorsement.